First-Half Studs Not to Trust: I’m Looking at You, Victor Martinez

With the season more than halfway complete, more and more fantasy teams in your league will likely stop paying attention. This gives the contending teams a huge advantage on the waiver wire with far less competition for important player acquisitions down the stretch.

At this point in the season, the best way to improve your team quickly and make a big jump in the standings is by ripping someone off in a trade. The most effective way to do that is by selling high and fooling your trade partner that the stud you’re about to trade to him will continue his high level of production. There are always a ton of sell-high candidates this can work with, but here are three players in particular that I think you would be wise to consider dealing.

1. VICTOR MARTINEZ (on pace for 36 HR, 95 RBI, 78 R, .322/.382/.584)

It raises my alarms anytime a 35-year-old — two years removed from knee micro-fracture surgery, no less — is having a career season. Peak power seasons don’t usually come this late in a career, especially when he have nine full seasons of evidence to suggest that this should not be trusted.

Standard regression to his career norms aside, it’s fair to be concerned that the recent soreness in his right side (he missed the last eight games before the all-star break) will put an end to his power surge. He’s come back to start the second half, but those types of injuries tend to sap power.

Forgetting the injury issues, it’s reasonable to assume his .584 slugging (previous career high .505 in 2007) is on the precipice of nosediving. Having long been one of the game’s most consistent switch hitters, it’s not a surprise to see him hitting above .300 against both lefties and righties — but his ridiculous .393 average and .753 slugging vs. southpaws is sure to come down.

His home run per fly ball percentage (17.8%) is nearly double his career average of 10.1% and his league-leading strikeout rate is likely to come a little bit back to earth.

A case can be made for Martinez, being that he is now two years removed from major knee surgery and he no longer has to endure the grind of being a catcher. He did hit .361 after the all-star break last season, so he’s picking up where he left off — but even then, he only hit six home runs after the break (for a .500 SLG), so I don’t see how you can count on his abnormal home run pace to continue.

2. ALFREDO SIMON (on pace for 20 W, 2.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 132 K)

This one may seem a bit obvious, but I think it needs to be reiterated how much this guy is likely to be nothing better than a spot starter moving forward.

This isn’t a young guy. This isn’t a former prospect finally making good after a few years of struggling. This is a 33-year-old journeymen that has six years of Major League track record to his name and nothing he’s ever done supports what he is now doing.

Simon’s track record of being good has only been for two-plus years now and those first two years were as a reliever. He was last a full-time starter in 2007 when he was in Triple-A and it wasn’t pretty (5-10, 6.43 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and 73 K in 119 IP).

If his several years of not being very good can’t convince you this is a fluke, then how about the fact that his 5.8 K/9 ranks 60th out of 73 qualified starters? Or how about that his .233 BABIP is the third-lowest among those 73? Or that his 83.5% left-on-base percentage (league average is 72%) is the second-highest in baseball? Or that his FIP (4.35) is more than a run and a half above his current ERA?

To recap: He doesn’t strike anyone out, he’s been incredibly lucky with stranding runners, he’s been incredibly lucky on balls in play and he’s really never been a good starting pitcher before. So yeah, I’ll pass.

3. JIMMY ROLLINS (on pace for 20 HR, 31 SB, 79 R, 68 RBI)

While I do think that Rollins will regress some from this point forward, my inclusion of him here is more of about letting you know that there are better options out there. Rollins ranks fifth on ESPN’s player rater at shortstop, but I view that as being a bit fluky for two reasons: 1. Rollins is playing a bit over his head. 2. A lot of the good shortstops that we’ve relied on the past few seasons are playing below their expected production levels.

I’d rather have the following players (ranked below Rollins) for the rest of the season: Ian Desmond, Starlin Castro, Jose Reyes, Jean Segura, Ben Zobrist and Erick Aybar. A case could also be made for Elvis Andrus, Jhonny Peralta, Alcides Escobar and Asdrubal Cabrera. You could acquire any of these guys rather easily via trade.

My main concern about Rollins is with the power (12 HR) and the speed (19 SB), which is the primary reason he’s ranked so highly right now. He only hit six home runs last year in 600 at bats, so this power spike (at age 35) is surprising. Rollins is also on pace for 31 steals, a number he hasn’t surpassed since the 2008 season. Usually speed doesn’t age well, so this has been surprising. He’s still a very good player, and obviously a fantasy asset, but I think you should do what the Phillies should do: trade him now while his value is as high as it is.

Even if you really need the steals, I think you’d be better served buying incredibly low on Segura. He’s been wretched this season (based on the heartbreaking news about his son, we can understand why), but he’s still managed to steal 15 bases. You can replace Rollins’ main source of production rather easily.

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